A debate that deserves immediate and close attention in the region is nearing a conclusion in Washington. The United States is close to deciding to end its arms embargo on Vietnam. Hanoi has applied to buy P-3 Orion, unarmed surveillance aircraft. The obvious reason for such a purchase is to allow Vietnam to keep a closer watch on its coastline and, more to the point, activities by China in the South China Sea.
US arms sales to Vietnam technically go back 60 years, when Ho Chi Minh's communist army defeated the French and took over the northern half of the country. Almost all official contact and commerce was banned between then-North Vietnam and the US. However, the actual embargo that seems likely to be ended in the coming weeks or months dates from 1975, when the communists overran Saigon and renamed it Ho Chi Minh City. It was a bitter war for the US, which has often shown signs of simply being a bad loser.
Diplomatic relations, trade ties, cultural exchanges and more were typically pried out of very reluctant hands in Washington. While relations today are on an even keel, the US still bans the sale of all important military or dual-use gear. The old excuse that Vietnam was a communist country with the goal of conquering its neighbours was abandoned years ago. Now the excuse of the cold warriors who still control part of the US State Department is that Vietnam has a terrible human rights record.
That is indisputable. Vietnam has never allowed freedom of speech, assembly or movement. Political prisoners number in the hundreds or thousands, and millions of Vietnamese have a well-founded fear of speaking openly, practising democratic politics or even contacting friends and relatives abroad. The Hanoi regime is arguably less tyrannical than immediately after the war, but it is certainly more anti-democracy and less tolerant than necessary.
It seems an exercise in hair-splitting, however, that Washington pursues every avenue of correct international relations with Vietnam, save one. Vietnam's foreign policy, while always attentive to China, is clearly aligned with the region, notably Asean. Its military is formidable but nothing like it was before the 1978 invasion of Cambodia and the traumatic losses of that conflict. This is the reasoning already employed by those who favour arms sales to Vietnam. It is the reasoning US President Barack Obama is likely to use in his declaration ending the ban on military sales.
The major catalyst in developing US-Vietnam relations has been Senator John McCain. The 2008 presidential candidate was a prisoner in the "Hanoi Hilton" during the Vietnam war. His leadership in moving relations away from the 1970s has been a key part in establishing diplomatic and trade ties. He has made numerous trips to Vietnam in the past 20 years. He now favours lifting some of the arms-sale restrictions.
The purchase of big-ticket military hardware like the Orion aircraft is a potential game-changer. Vietnam and the Philippines in particular have disputed Chinese claims on virtually everything near and under the South China Sea. Unarmed Orion aircraft, in military parlance, "linger" over a target area for up to half a day. Even two such aircraft would give Hanoi virtually unrestricted ability to watch suspect Chinese navy moves in the region.
Military sales, however, come with diplomatic baggage. China will protest any Orion sales. Vietnam certainly feels it has the right to take defensive steps as it sees fit. Other nations, meanwhile, may seek upgrades to match Hanoi's new clout.